Nifty 50 Market Analysis: Technical Outlook and Top Constituents Ahead of May 29, 2025 Expiry

 

Market Recap: May 20, 2025

On May 20, 2025, Indian equity markets experienced a significant downturn. The Nifty 50 index declined by 261.55 points (1.05%) to close at 24,683.90, while the BSE Sensex dropped 872.98 points (1.06%) to settle at 81,186.44. This decline was primarily attributed to global economic concerns, including Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating, leading to cautious investor sentiment and profit booking.

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 Institutional Activity on May 20, 2025

• Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs): Net sellers with a significant outflow of ₹10,016 crore.

• Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs): Net buyers, injecting ₹6,738 crore into the market.

The substantial FII selling pressure contributed to the market's decline, while DII buying provided some support.

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 Nifty 50 Technical Outlook

The Nifty 50 index's close below the 24,700 mark indicates a bearish sentiment. Key support levels are identified at 24,500, with resistance around 25,000. A breach below 24,500 could lead to further downside, while a move above 25,000 may signal recovery.

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 Top 10 Nifty 50 Constituents: Technical Positions and Options Activity

1. HDFC Bank (13.31% weightage):

   • Closing Price: ₹1,917.10

   • Technical Position: Closed below key support levels, indicating weakness.

   • Options Activity: Increased put writing at ₹1,900 suggests support; call writing at ₹1,950 indicates resistance.

2. ICICI Bank (9.15%):

   • Closing Price: ₹1,454.00

   • Technical Position: Facing resistance near ₹1,460.

   • Options Activity: Heavy call writing at ₹1,460; put writing at ₹1,440 suggests support.

3. Reliance Industries (8.65%):

   • Closing Price: ₹1,425.30

   • Technical Position: Downtrend observed, with resistance at ₹1,450.

   • Options Activity: Call writing at ₹1,450; put writing at ₹1,400 indicates support.

4. Infosys (4.91%):

   • Closing Price: ₹1,563.50

   • Technical Position: Consolidating between ₹1,550 and ₹1,600.

   • Options Activity: Balanced call and put writing at ₹1,550, indicating indecision.

5. Bharti Airtel (4.55%):

   • Closing Price: ₹1,809.70

   • Technical Position: Stable above ₹1,800, with upward bias.

   • Options Activity: Call writing at ₹1,850; put writing at ₹1,800 suggests support.

6. ITC (3.6%):

   • Closing Price: ₹435.70

   • Technical Position: Bullish above ₹430.

   • Options Activity: Call writing at ₹440; put writing at ₹430 indicates strong support.

7. Larsen & Toubro (3.56%):

   • Closing Price: ₹3,575.00

   • Technical Position: Strong uptrend above ₹3,500.

   • Options Activity: Call writing at ₹3,600; put writing at ₹3,500 suggests support.

8. TCS (3.21%):

   • Closing Price: ₹3,498.05

   • Technical Position: Stable above ₹3,500 with upward bias.

   • Options Activity: Call writing at ₹3,550; put writing at ₹3,500 indicates support.

9. Axis Bank (3.08%):

   • Closing Price: ₹1,205.40

   • Technical Position: Recovering towards ₹1,200.

   • Options Activity: Call writing at ₹1,250; put writing at ₹1,200 indicates support.

10. Kotak Mahindra Bank (2.95%):

    • Closing Price: ₹2,088.85

    • Technical Position: Closed below the 50-day moving average, indicating weakness.

    • Options Activity: Call writing at ₹2,100; put writing at ₹2,050 suggests support.

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 Impact on Nifty 50

The technical positions and options activities of these top constituents suggest a cautious outlook for the Nifty 50 index. Strong support levels in key stocks provide a safety net, while resistance levels indicate areas where profit booking may occur. Overall, the index may experience consolidation ahead of the May 29, 2025, expiry, barring any significant global or domestic developments.

Conclusion  

As the May 29, 2025, expiration date approaches, the Nifty 50 index displays a prudent outlook shaped by global economic worries and substantial FII withdrawals. Investors need to keep an eye on important support and resistance levels, as well as institutional behaviors, to maneuver through the market successfully.