Nifty 50 Outlook for 23rd May 2025 (Friday) – Crucial Pre-Expiry Session

Market Recap (22nd May):

• Nifty 50 closed at 24,609.70, down 203.75 pts (-0.82%), but staged a strong intraday recovery from the lows.
• Bank Nifty showed relative strength, down just 0.24%, suggesting financials were not under heavy pressure.
• India VIX fell 1.65% to 17.25, indicating reduced volatility despite the correction, hinting at intraday short covering.

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Global Market Context (as of 20:26 IST)

• Dow Jones: -128.88 pts (-0.31%)
• S&P 500: -0.25%
• Nasdaq: +0.22%
• S&P VIX: +1.15%

Interpretation: The US market is mixed, with tech (Nasdaq) holding strong, which may lend support to Indian IT majors on Friday. Rising US VIX shows some caution globally.

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Technical Snapshot – Top Nifty Contributors (as of 22 May close)

Stock	Bias	Key Technical Note
Reliance	Mildly bearish	Near short-term support
HDFC Bank	Oversold	Bounce expected from RSI zone
ICICI Bank	Neutral-bullish	Sideways, holding above key moving averages
Infosys	Bullish attempt	MACD crossover seen
TCS	Neutral	Rangebound; supports intact
ITC	Reversal chance	Oversold; close to bounce zone
L&T	Bullish watch	Near breakout level
Axis Bank	Consolidating	Needs breakout above 1120
Kotak Bank	Weak, base zone	Support around 1720
Bharti Airtel	Strong bullish	Near 52-week high levels

These 10 stocks drive ~62–65% of Nifty's movement. The setup suggests a mixed but stable to slightly bullish tone, especially if IT and FMCG rebound.

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Key Technical Levels for Nifty 50 (Friday, 23 May)

• Support Zones:

  • 24,450 (first line of defense)
  • 24,300 (strong swing support)

• Resistance Zones:

  • 24,750 (supply zone)
  • 24,850–25,000 (expiry-driven ceiling)

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Outlook Summary

• Tone: Flat to mildly positive start expected
• Bias: Range-bound to bullish if support at 24,450 holds
• Trigger Point: Crossing 24,750 may lead to an expiry rally towards 25,000

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Expiry Week Trading Plan (Friday)

• If Nifty sustains above 24,750:
  Consider Bull Call Spreads (24,700–25,000) or long futures with a tight SL.

• If breaks below 24,450:
  Add Put positions (24,400–24,300) for expiry pressure play.

• Avoid heavy overnight positions – US markets remain uncertain, and expiry whipsaws are common.