NIFTY 50: Tomorrow’s Opening and Trading Range Outlook

 

Indian Index Closing

• Close on May 23, 2025: NIFTY 50 at 24,853.15, up 0.99% (243 points).

• Recent High: Crossed 25,000 intra-week, driven by FII buying (₹5,393 crore) and U.S.-India trade deal optimism.

• Volatility: India VIX at ~16, indicating easing market nerves.

U.S. Indexes Closing

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Up 1% from intraday lows on May 22, 2025, due to easing Treasury yields.

• Dow: Flat, with concerns over U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

• GIFT Nifty: At 25,177 (+97 points), suggesting a 0.4%–0.5% gap-up opening.

Technical Position of NIFTY 50

• Trend: Bullish, trading in an ascending channel after breaking a descending channel.

• Support: 24,600–24,500; break below could target 24,200.

• Resistance: 25,000–25,300 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement).

• Indicators: RSI ~50 (neutral), Stochastic oversold (potential bounce).

• Strategy: Buy-on-dips above 24,500, targeting 25,150–25,500.

Technical Position of Top 10 NIFTY 50 Stocks

1. Reliance Industries: Bullish, RSI >60, support ₹2,800, resistance ₹3,100.

2. HDFC Bank: Consolidating, RSI 55, support ₹1,550, resistance ₹1,650.

3. ICICI Bank: Uptrend, RSI 62, support ₹1,100, resistance ₹1,200.

4. Infosys: Bullish breakout, RSI 58, support ₹1,750, resistance ₹1,900.

5. TCS: Range-bound, RSI 50, support ₹3,900, resistance ₹4,100.

6. Bharti Airtel: Pullback, RSI 45, support ₹1,300, resistance ₹1,400.

7. SBI: Bullish, RSI 60, support ₹800, resistance ₹850.

8. HUL: Consolidating, RSI 48, support ₹2,300, resistance ₹2,500.

9. ITC: Stable, RSI 52, support ₹430, resistance ₹470.

10. Larsen & Toubro: Strong, RSI 60, support ₹3,500, resistance ₹3,800.

Impact of India’s GDP Milestone

• Context: India surpassed Japan as the 4th largest economy, boosting FII inflows and sentiment.

• Market Impact: Likely to trigger short covering, pushing NIFTY toward 25,300–25,600.

Expiry and Short Covering

• Weekly Expiry: High premiums, potential stop-loss hunting.

• Call Side: Resistance at 25,000–25,100; above 24,950, targets 25,070–25,120.

• Put Side: Support at 24,700–24,725; rejection could limit downside to 24,480–24,330.

Opening and Trading Range

• Opening: 24,950–25,000 (gap-up of 0.4%–0.5%).

• Range: 24,700–25,120, with 25,000 as pivotal.

• Bullish Scenario: Above 24,950, targets 25,070–25,300 on short covering.

• Bearish Scenario: Below 24,950, tests 24,700–24,600; break below 24,500 targets 24,200.

Key Factors

• Global Cues: Mixed Asian markets, U.S. bond yields.

• Earnings: BHEL, Hyundai Motor, Delhivery Q4 results.

• Rupee: At 85.32, supports FII inflows.

• Risks: India-Pakistan tensions.

Conclusion

A gap-up opening near 25,000 is likely, with a trading range of 24,700–25,120. Strong financials and IT stocks, coupled with GDP-driven optimism, favor bulls, but traders should monitor 25,000 resistance and geopolitical risks. Buy-on-dips near 24,700 with a stop-loss below 24,500 is recommended