Republic Services Hits All-Time High: Can RSG Maintain Its Momentum Amid Tariff Tensions?

Republic Services (RSG) stock hit a record $253.54, driven by strong earnings and acquisitions. But with global tariff tensions rising, can RSG sustain its upward momentum? Here’s a detailed look at its fundamentals, technicals, and future outlook.

Republic Services Soars to Record High

Republic Services (NYSE: RSG), one of the leading players in the U.S. waste management industry, has seen its stock soar to an all-time high of $253.54. This comes on the back of solid quarterly earnings, aggressive expansion via acquisitions, and analyst upgrades that signal confidence in its long-term outlook. But with tariff tensions globally starting to bubble again, is this a peak or just a pitstop on the way to further gains?

Fundamentals: Strong & Steady

1. Revenue & Profit Growth:

Revenue up by 7% YoY, driven by core operations and inorganic growth.
Adjusted EBITDA growth stands at a healthy 12%, reflecting efficient cost management.

2. Piotroski Score: 9/9

Indicates robust financial strength and operational consistency.

3. Dividend History:

Republic Services has paid consistent dividends for 23 straight years, making it a darling of income investors.

4. Strategic Acquisitions:

Continued investments in waste-to-energy and recycling segments are expanding its future revenue channels.

5. Analyst Sentiment:

TD Cowen raised the price target to $235, and RBC Capital upgraded it to “Outperform” with a target of $237.

Valuation Metrics:

Metric	Value
P/E Ratio	~33x
Forward Dividend Yield	~1.15%
Debt/Equity	Moderate (well managed given cash flow stability)

Technical Analysis: Momentum Still Intact?

Price Action: RSG broke out of a long-term resistance zone around $245, with strong volume confirmation.
Moving Averages:
- 50-day MA: ~$241 (acting as support)
- 200-day MA: ~$222 (long-term uptrend support)
RSI: Near 68 – close to overbought, but not at dangerous levels yet.
MACD: Bullish crossover recently confirmed in early May, supporting further upside.

Watch For:

A retest of $245 could offer buying opportunities.
Any break below $240 might indicate a short-term correction.

External Risks: Tariffs & Trade Policy

With U.S.-China and EU trade tensions resurfacing in early 2025, there is concern that import tariffs on equipment, including waste processing machinery, could marginally impact capital costs for RSG.

However, Republic Services has limited direct exposure to imports and manufactures most of its key equipment domestically or sources it via long-term contracts. While the tariff environment adds uncertainty, RSG is better positioned than its peers due to:

Strong domestic footprint
Economies of scale
Contractual pass-through of rising costs to municipal clients

The Road Ahead: What’s Next for RSG?

Bull Case:

With stable cash flows, strong dividend history, and growing recycling initiatives, RSG remains a long-term defensive play.
Entry into sustainable waste technologies could unlock a new era of green growth.

Bear Case:

Tariff-related cost escalations and economic slowdowns could squeeze margins.
Overvaluation concerns may arise if growth slows in the next few quarters.

Neutral Outlook:

Sideways consolidation likely near $250–$255 unless new acquisitions or regulatory tailwinds emerge.

Conclusion: Is RSG Still a Buy?

Republic Services offers a compelling blend of stability and growth, underpinned by strong fundamentals, technical support, and investor-friendly policies. While macroeconomic concerns like tariffs may cause short-term hiccups, the long-term thesis remains intact, especially for conservative and dividend-focused investors.

RSG still looks like a clean winner for investors seeking exposure in the commercial services space with a defensive edge and ESG appeal.

The Financial And Tech Literacy