Bangladesh Pays $384 Million to Adani Power: A Deep Dive into the Deal, Stock Fundamentals, and Market Sentiment

Bangladesh has paid $384 million to Adani Power, clearing much of its payment backlog. Discover the story behind this development, analyze Adani Power’s fundamentals and technicals, and explore what this means for investors.

Bangladesh Pays $384 Million — What Happened

In late June 2025, Bangladesh made a substantial payment of USD 384 million to Adani Power under a 2017 power-purchase agreement. This payment represents nearly the full monthly commitment of USD 437 million, clearing “admitted” claims up to March 31.

Before this, Bangladesh had struggled to keep up with monthly payments, leading Adani to slash electricity supply by 50% in November 2024. Supply resumed to full capacity of 1,600 MW in March 2025 as payments restarted.

With approximately USD 1.5 billion cleared from the roughly USD 2 billion billed, the outstanding amount (or “claimed” dues) now stands at about USD 500 million.

Importantly, Adani Power reportedly waived around USD 20 million in late-payment charges from January to June, as long as Bangladesh stays committed. Ongoing discussions also include coal price and plant capacity reconciliation to bridge the gap between “claimed” and “admitted” dues.

Why This Deal Matters

1. Revenue certainty restored

Adani Power supplies 100% of electricity from its Godda power plant in Jharkhand to Bangladesh for 25 years. Clearing dues re-establishes a reliable revenue stream from a stable, long-term contract.

2. Political and macroeconomic backdrop

Bangladesh’s delayed payments were driven by foreign exchange shortages, a government transition in August 2024, and global inflation pressures after the Russia–Ukraine war. Clearing dues is a sign of policy continuity and improved macro stability.

3. Credit and financing implications

Adani is hopeful the remaining USD 500–900 million backlog will be cleared gradually — a positive signal to lenders and bond markets.

Adani Power Fundamentals

Metric	Value / Trend	Implication
Revenue growth	Strengthening due to resumed full supply	Positively impacted
Debt Levels	High (~INR 70,000 crore); manageable with extended inflows	Watch debt servicing
Profit Margins	Under pressure from coal cost disputes	Margin recovery hinges on resolution
Cash Flow	Improving with regular payments	Likely sufficient with Bangladesh inflows
Valuation (P/E)	~10–12x (FY25E) vs peers at ~14x	Could rerate upward
Dividend Yield	Low (1–2%)	Remains modest
Risks	Counterparty risk, foreign exchange	Ongoing exposure

Technical Analysis Overview

Key technical metrics from June 28, 2025:

Price Levels: Rs 605 high; closed around Rs 584
5‑day EMA: 558.3
10‑day EMA: 555.7
20‑day EMA: 555.0
50‑day EMA: 548.3
100‑day EMA: 543.3
200‑day EMA: 548.6

With the stock trading above all major EMAs, it demonstrates clear short- to medium-term bullish momentum.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): ~59 (neutral; room to run before overbought)
Performance Over Time:
- ↓15.6% over 12 months
- +14.5% YTD
- +19% in 6 months
- +16% in the last 3 months
- +9% in the last 1 month

Bullish EMAs coupled with these gains suggest sustained buying interest.

What This Means for Investors

Positives

Revenue visibility improved with Bangladesh clearing dues.
Short backlog manageable with payment momentum.
Technical uptrend supports further price appreciation.

Risks

Still USD 500m+ outstanding: requires sustained clearance.
Coal pricing dispute unresolved — threatens margins.
Geopolitical FX risk remains for Bangladesh's FX exposure.

Investment Outlook

Current stock price implies optimism, but the resolution of backend dues is still pending. If Bangladesh meets its full payment commitment and coal/operational terms stabilize, earnings could rise in FY26 and FY27, potentially expanding margins and increasing cash flows.

Final Word: Could Adani Power Be a Buy?

Adani Power is entering its next growth phase, backed by cleared UAE backlog and renewed supplies. Technically strong and trading at a modest valuation, the stock offers upside if Bangladesh remains on track with payments and disputes are resolved. Watch the next 2–3 monthly payments/announcements; consistency will be key.

Author’s Note

As we see unfolding developments from Dhaka to Godda, it’s clear this isn’t just a transactional story — it’s about two nations managing legacy commitments while navigating the complexities of energy, currency, and geopolitics. Adani Power’s fate, for now, hinges on Bangladesh’s ability to honor its commitments amidst structural and global headwinds.

I’ll be closely tracking Bangladesh’s remaining USD 500 million, Adani Power’s resolution of coal cost issues, and upcoming monthly payments. These will be the real signals cementing a bullish narrative.

What I’ll be watching:

Monthly payment updates from Bangladesh, especially July/August statements.
Company guidance on resolving coal-price disputes and evaluating operating margins in Q1FY26 results.
Technical confirmation, such as a break above Rs 620 or a pullback toward Rs 550 support with renewed volume.

Stay tuned — history is unfolding, and there’s more to come.

The Financial And Tech Literacy