Nifty 50 Expiry Day Outlook: SGX Nifty Signals Positive Start, Range Seen Between 24,800–25,300

Nifty 50 Expiry Day Outlook: SGX Nifty Signals Positive Start, Range Seen Between 24,800–25,3Nifty 50 may open higher on the monthly expiry day as SGX Nifty trades over 100 points up. Read the complete analysis of PCR, OI data, resistance and support zones, and top stocks to trade today.

 Nifty 50 Expiry Day Outlook: SGX Nifty Signals Positive Start, Range Seen Between 24,800–25,300

Global Market Recap (as of 7:55 AM IST)

US Index	Value	Change	% Change
US 30 (Dow Jones)	43,077.5	-11.6	-0.03%
US 500 (S&P 500)	6,088.1	-4.1	-0.07%
US Tech 100	22,173.9	-16.6	-0.07%
US 2000	2,158.1	-3.1	-0.14%
S&P 500 VIX	19.23	-1.17	-5.74%

SGX Nifty Snapshot (as of 7:57 AM IST)

Index	Last Trade	Change	% Change	Open	High	Low
SGX Nifty	25,185.5	+108.0	+0.43%	25,169.0	25,184.5	25,037.0

Asian Market Trends

Index	Value	Change	% Change
Hang Seng	24,322.00	+144.93	+0.60%
Kospi	3,110.95	+7.31	+0.24%
South Africa Top 40	88,357.19	+673.43	+0.77%
Nikkei 225 (Japan)	38,745.00	-45.56	-0.12%
Shanghai Composite	3,418.60	-1.96	-0.06%

Commodities Market Overview

Commodity	Price	Change	% Change
Gold	3,345.45	+11.55	+0.35%
Silver	35.878	+0.145	+0.41%
Crude Oil (WTI)	65.33	+0.96	+1.49%
Brent Oil	67.09	+0.92	+1.39%
Natural Gas	3.704	+0.022	+0.60%
Copper	4.9087	+0.0082	+0.17%
Gasoline (RBOB)	2.1120	+0.0263	+1.26%

Nifty 50 Technical Levels

Based on pivot analysis, key intraday levels for Nifty are:

• Resistance: 25,242, 25,317, and 25,439

• Support: 24,999, 24,924, and 24,803

• Pivot: Around 25,120

Nifty formed a minor upper shadow on the daily chart but remains above key moving averages like the 50 DMA and 100 DMA, signaling a positive short-term trend.

Derivatives Data: PCR and OI

Open Interest (OI) data shows the highest call writing at 25,200 and 25,300 strikes, with heavy put writing at 25,000 and 25,200 strikes. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands near 0.85, indicating that call writers are slightly more aggressive, but put writers continue to defend support zones.

• 25,200 Strike: Call OI ~310 lakh, Put OI ~286 lakh

• 25,000 Strike: Call OI ~170 lakh, Put OI ~263 lakh

• 25,300 Strike: Call OI ~278 lakh, Put OI ~105 lakh

This implies a likely expiry within the range of 24,800 to 25,300 unless a breakout occurs during intraday trade.

Expiry Day Strategy

Nifty is likely to trade within the 24,800 to 25,300 range. Traders should watch for dip buying opportunities near 24,900–25,000 and consider exiting or taking short-term profits near 25,200–25,300. If the index sustains above 25,300, it could trigger a breakout toward 25,500. However, a stop-loss below 24,800 should be maintained to protect downside risk.

Updated Stock-Specific Outlook (Closing as of June 24, 2025)

Stock	Closing Price	Setup	Support	Resistance
Reliance Industries	₹1,450.80	Holding above the moving averages	1,420	1,480
BPCL	₹319.25	Benefiting from the oil rally	305	335
Kotak Bank	₹1,729.50*	Bullish consolidation	1,700	1,760
Grasim	₹2,215.40*	Positive trend continuation	2,160	2,240
Adani Ports	₹1,352.80*	Nearing the breakout zone	1,340	1,385
HAL	₹5,120.00*	High delivery activity	5,060	5,150
KPIT Tech	₹1,330.00*	Momentum continuation	1,280	1,360
Hindalco	₹635.00*	Supported by the copper rally	620	645
Voltas	₹1,260.00*	Technical strength visible	1,230	1,285
Chola Finance	₹1,160.00*	Strong delivery volumes	1,140	1,185

These stocks remain in strong focus due to technical setups, sectoral tailwinds, and high options interest.

Conclusion

With global cues stabilizing, SGX Nifty indicating a positive start, and put writers defending key levels, Nifty is poised for a relatively strong expiry. The 25,200 level will be crucial for intraday momentum. A breakout above 25,300 could lead to fresh buying, while failure to sustain could pull the index back toward 24,900. Traders are advised to stay light on positions post-11:30 AM and monitor real-time PCR and FIIs data for sharp expiry movements.

Author's Note

As we approach the monthly F&O expiry, the Indian stock market is navigating a crucial zone shaped by global cues, derivatives positioning, and commodity strength. This blog is written to help traders, investors, and financial enthusiasts better understand the underlying sentiment driving the Nifty 50 and related sectors.

While the SGX Nifty and global market setup suggest optimism, expiry sessions are often marked by volatility and intraday traps. The key lies in respecting support and resistance levels, monitoring PCR and open interest flows, and maintaining a disciplined risk-reward strategy.

Whether you are a seasoned trader or a market learner, I hope this analysis empowers your trading decisions with clarity and context. Stay informed, stay disciplined.