Nifty 50 Weekly Expiry Outlook: Global Cues, Domestic Data, and Market Triggers for June 5, 2025

Explore how global trends, institutional buying, GST records, income tax data, and heavyweights like HDFC Bank and Reliance shape Nifty 50's weekly expiry on June 5, 2025.

Market Recap: Bulls Regain Momentum

Indian equity markets bounced back on June 4, 2025, as benchmark indices closed higher, shrugging off prior volatility. The Nifty 50 rose by 77.70 points (+0.32%) to settle at 24,620.20, while the Sensex gained 260.74 points, closing at 80,998.25.

This upward movement came despite mixed global cues and was supported by strong institutional buying, positive domestic economic data, and sectoral resilience, particularly from banking and large-cap tech stocks.

Institutional Participation: FII-DII Balance

➤ Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs):

After heavy selling on June 3, FIIs returned as net buyers, pumping in ₹1,076 crore into Indian equities. This renewed participation reflects confidence in India's macroeconomic outlook and earnings potential.

➤ Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs):

DIIs were also aggressive buyers with ₹2,566 crore net inflows, continuing to lend solid support at every dip.

Takeaway: Combined FII-DII buying indicates potential short-covering and support at lower levels during today’s weekly expiry.

Domestic Triggers: Income Tax and GST Collection

Record GST Collection

India recorded a historic Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection of ₹2.10 lakh crore in May 2025—the highest ever since the implementation of GST in 2017. This reflects buoyant consumption, improved compliance, and a robust economic recovery.

Direct Tax Collections Soar

The Income Tax Department reported a 14% YoY jump in direct tax collections for FY25 so far, reinforcing fiscal stability. Advance tax payments by corporates have risen, suggesting optimistic profit expectations.

Market Impact: These numbers are fiscally reassuring and could influence RBI’s monetary stance, enhancing confidence among equity investors.

Global Market Snapshot

U.S. Market

Dow Jones: 42,427.74 (-0.22%)
S&P 500: 5,970.81 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq: 19,460.49 (+0.32%)

While the Dow dipped, tech-heavy Nasdaq saw inflows ahead of upcoming Fed commentary. U.S. 10-year bond yields declined, triggering expectations of dovish policy ahead.

🇨🇳 China

Caixin Services PMI came in stronger than expected.
However, tariff tensions with the U.S. kept sentiments subdued.

🇯🇵 Asia Opening Today

Nikkei 225: Down 0.39%
Kospi: Up 0.75%
SGX Nifty (Indicator for Indian market): Flat to mildly positive at open

Commodities, Currency & Bonds

Crude Oil: Brent below $78 due to Saudi Arabia's signal for increased supply
US Dollar Index (DXY): Down near 104, reflecting weakness
INR: Stable at 83.45 vs USD
Gold: Firm near ₹72,000 per 10g, supporting hedge buying

Inference: Weak dollar, soft crude, and strong GST data build a favorable case for Indian markets.

Top 5 Nifty 50 Heavyweights: Fundamentals & Technicals

Let’s look at five key index drivers and their current positioning:

1. HDFC Bank (Weight: ~13.3%)

Fundamentals: Solid loan growth, best-in-class asset quality, and net interest margins are stable
Technicals: Above 20-DMA and forming bullish flag pattern
Trigger: Any breakout above ₹1,600 can pull the index higher

2. ICICI Bank (Weight: ~9.1%)

Fundamentals: High CASA ratio, strong credit growth, and cost control
Technicals: Trading near ₹1,200 resistance; above ₹1,215, sharp rally possible
Trigger: Strong derivative long buildup seen on June 4

3. Reliance Industries (Weight: ~8.6%)

Fundamentals: Diversified revenues, growing telecom and retail arms, steady cash flows
Technicals: Support near ₹2,800, showing signs of a bounce
Trigger: News on Jio IPO or energy partnerships could spur a move

4. Infosys (Weight: ~4.9%)

Fundamentals: Strong digital pipeline, margin pressures easing
Technicals: Upward channel pattern forming; above ₹1,550 could test ₹1,600+
Trigger: U.S. macro data and dollar index movement key

5. Bharti Airtel (Weight: ~4.5%)

Fundamentals: Increasing ARPU, 5G rollout, low leverage
Technicals: Trading above key moving averages; breakout above ₹1,350 strong positive
Trigger: Spectrum news or subscriber growth will be crucial

India VIX and Derivatives Setup

India VIX fell 4.89% to 15.74, suggesting lower volatility ahead of expiry.
PCR (Put Call Ratio) around 1.14, indicating a bullish undertone
Max OI concentration:
- Support: 24,500 Put
- Resistance: 24,800–25,000 Call

Strategy Suggestion: Option writers are eyeing a tight range of 24,500–24,800. Short straddle or iron condor traders may remain active.

Way Forward: What to Watch

RBI Policy Commentary (June 7):
Expectations of a status quo, but commentary on inflation and growth will set the tone.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Tonight):
Surprise upside may lead to bond yield reactions.
China’s Trade Data (Tomorrow):
May affect metals and commodity stocks.
FIIs & Option Data Today (Expiry):
If FIIs continue buying and VIX stays low, we may see a move toward 24,800–25,000 on Nifty.

Conclusion: Balanced but Bullish Undertone

Despite mixed global cues, India’s strong macro data (record GST, income tax surge), positive institutional flows, and heavyweight stock resilience are likely to support a bullish bias in today’s weekly expiry session.

With volatility easing and crude softening, buy-on-dips remains the preferred strategy, especially in banking, telecom, and IT.

Note: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Please consult with a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

The Financial And Tech Literacy