How Nifty 50 Could Trade Today: Reliance, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank Results, Global Cues, and EU Sanctions in Focus

Explore today’s Nifty 50 outlook with analysis of global markets, Reliance, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank Q1 results, and the impact of EU petroleum sanctions. Includes fundamental and technical insights on key Nifty 50 stocks.


Market Outlook: Will Nifty 50 Start Cautiously or See a Relief Rally Today

As the markets open on July 21, 2025, Indian investors are processing a wave of cues—from Wall Street’s flat close to upbeat Asian markets, from quarterly earnings by Reliance, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank to rising concerns over EU sanctions on petroleum products. All these variables set the tone for what may be a volatile yet opportunity-rich trading session.


1. Global Cues: A Mixed Bag

US Market Closing – May 18, 2025

IndexClosing  ValueChange  Percentage Change
Dow Jones44342.19-142.30-0.32
S&P 5006296.79-0.57-0.01
Nasdaq20895.66+10.01+0.05
Small Cap 20002240.01-13.67-0.61
S&P 500 VIX16.41-0.11-0.67

US Futures – Morning of July 21, 2025
IndexPriceChange Percentage Change
US 3044386.0     +43.8     +0.10
US 5006304.9     +8.1     +0.13
US Tech 10023112.6     +47.1                +0.20
US 20002245.5     +5.5       +0.25
S&P 500 VIX18.95     -0.19        -1.00

US markets ended mixed on May 18, while futures point to mild optimism. This indicates a cautious but supportive global backdrop for Indian equities.

2. Asian Markets: Broadly Positive Open

Index Name

Time IST

Value

Change

Percentage Change

Shanghai Composite SSEC

0751

3551.62

+17.14

+0.48

SZSE Component SZI

0736

10948.54

+34.70

+0.32

China A50

0736

13862.55

+13.44

+0.10

Philippines PSEi Composite

0736

6319.37

+15.65

+0.25

Hang Seng HK50

0751

24958.50

+132.84

+0.54

KOSPI South Korea

0751

3202.02

+13.95

+0.44

Nikkei 225 Japan

Closed


Most major Asian indices opened in green, supporting a potential positive start for Nifty, barring the absence of cues from Japan.

3. Top Nifty 50 Movers Today

CompanyPrice INRChange INRPercentage ChangeWeightage Percentage
HDFC Bank1957.40-29.50-1.4813.19
ICICI Bank1425.80+7.10+0.508.91
Reliance1476.00-0.40-0.038.79
Infosys1586.10+2.60+0.164.99
Bharti Airtel1901.00-28.90-1.504.74
L&T3464.80-9.20-0.263.73
ITC422.75-1.20-0.283.35
TCS3189.90-19.30-0.603.06

4. Impact of Quarterly Results: Reliance, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank in Focus

Reliance Industries
Reliance’s flat move hides a deeper concern—EU sanctions on petroleum product imports. Its refining business may face margin pressures and logistics challenges. However, its retail and Jio segments are performing strongly and could offset weakness in the oil segment. Investors await more guidance on capex and EBITDA margins.

HDFC Bank Q1 FY26 Results
The largest private lender saw a 1.48 percent fall as net interest margins narrowed and loan growth slowed. Despite near-term concerns, HDFC Bank remains fundamentally strong with robust CASA, a clean book, and industry-leading digital infrastructure. Long-term investors may see this as a consolidation phase.

ICICI Bank Q1 FY26 Results
In contrast, ICICI Bank posted impressive profit growth, supported by strong NII (Net Interest Income), fee income, and improving cost metrics. With a gain of 0.50 percent, ICICI continues to benefit from a shift in market share and digital lending innovation, giving a bullish bias to the banking pack.


5. EU Sanctions: Global Oil Tensions Cast a Shadow

The EU’s decision to restrict petroleum product imports from select suppliers, including India-based Nayara Energy, could disrupt Indian energy exports. Although Reliance is diversified, sentiment across energy stocks may remain cautious. Crude futures are also volatile, increasing input costs for transport, aviation, and logistics sectors.


6. Gift Nifty Indicates a Flat to Negative Opening

Gift Nifty is trading approximately 25 points lower. This reflects cautiousness around HDFC’s earnings and global oil tensions. However, strong ICICI Bank numbers and positive signals from Asian peers could help the index recover after the opening.


7. Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Top 8 Nifty 50 Constituents

CompanyP/E RatioROE (%)Debt-to-EquityTechnicals
HDFC Bank17.214.80.93Below 50-DMA, RSI at 42 suggests weakness
ICICI Bank20.516.50.90Trading above 20-DMA and 50-DMA, RSI at 58
Reliance24.711.20.36Sideways near 200-DMA, RSI neutral at 49
Infosys21.329.10.04Trading near 20-DMA, RSI at 53, mild bullish
Bharti Airtel62.59.71.10RSI falling below 40, bearish bias
L&T29.815.30.55Near 20-DMA, RSI at 47, neutral
ITC26.425.10.02Slightly bearish, RSI at 45
TCS29.146.30.05Below 50-DMA, RSI at 44, consolidation phase

Conclusion: How Will Nifty 50 Trade Today

Positive Factors

  • Strong Asian cues

  • Positive ICICI Bank earnings

  • Lower volatility in global markets

Negative Factors

  • Weak performance by HDFC Bank and Bharti Airtel

  • EU sanctions on oil exports

  • Gift Nifty is showing a cautious open

Today’s Expected Trend
The Nifty 50 may open flat or slightly lower but has room to recover if buying emerges in private banks, technology, and capital goods. Watch for volume spikes around Reliance and banking counters.


Author's Note

The market today is a reflection of a balancing act between short-term uncertainty and long-term strength. Traders should track global oil updates, while investors may find accumulation opportunities in strong fundamentals like ICICI Bank or TCS. Stay informed, stay selective.



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