How Trump’s Tariffs Could Reshape Indian Markets: Sector-wise Impact and Key Listed Companies to Watch

Trump’s new tariff plans may shake up global trade. Discover which Indian listed companies and sectors stand to gain or lose, and why the next few months are critical for investors.

Introduction

As the 2024 US presidential elections heat up, Donald Trump’s campaign promises are already making waves across global markets. His recent pledge to impose massive tariffs on Chinese imports—potentially 60 percent or more—has once again sparked debates on trade wars, supply chain shifts, and manufacturing realignments.

While these tariffs are targeted at China, their global impact could be immense, including for countries like India. For Indian companies operating in export-heavy industries, component manufacturing, or international supply chains, this announcement is both a threat and an opportunity.

Let’s explore how different sectors of the Indian stock market may be impacted and which NSE or BSE-listed companies could be most affected.

1. Auto and Auto Components: A Shift in the Global Wheel

What’s Changing

Trump’s tariff proposal includes targeting Chinese electric vehicles and auto parts. This could benefit other manufacturing hubs, including India.

Indian Companies in Focus

Tata Motors (NSE: TATAMOTORS) – With its UK-based subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover, Tata Motors is deeply integrated into global auto markets, including the US and EU. Tariff-led shifts could increase demand for non-Chinese suppliers.
Motherson Sumi Wiring (NSE: MSUMI) – Supplies wiring harnesses globally and has major contracts in Europe and North America.
Bharat Forge (NSE: BHARATFORG) – Leading exporter of forged components to the auto and defense sectors.
Endurance Technologies (NSE: ENDURANCE) – Exporter of two-wheeler parts to Europe, could benefit from rerouted demand.

Impact: Mixed to Positive – India could be a safer bet for parts and EV manufacturing, but input cost pressures remain.

2. Electronics Manufacturing: India’s Big China Plus One Moment

What’s Changing

Trump’s aggressive stance on Chinese semiconductors, smart electronics, and batteries may force US companies to diversify supply chains rapidly.

Indian Companies in Focus

Dixon Technologies (NSE: DIXON) – India’s top contract manufacturer for mobile phones, TVs, and wearables.
Syrma SGS Tech (NSE: SYRMA) – Involved in PCB assembly and system integration, with global exports.
Kaynes Technology (NSE: KAYNES) – Plays a crucial role in EMS across consumer and industrial sectors.
Tata Elxsi (NSE: TATAELXSI) – Embedded systems provider, may see increased demand from diversified OEMs.

Impact: Highly Positive – India may emerge as a key EMS destination if US importers pivot away from China.

3. Textiles and Apparel: Tailoring the Trade

What’s Changing

With possible tariffs on Chinese garments and textiles, US importers may turn to Bangladesh, Vietnam, and India.

Indian Companies in Focus

Gokaldas Exports (NSE: GOKEX) – Seventy percent of revenue from US and EU apparel exports.
KPR Mill (NSE: KPRMILL) – End-to-end exporter of yarn and garments.
Page Industries (NSE: PAGEIND) – Manufactures premium clothing under the Jockey brand.
Welspun India (NSE: WELSPUNIND) – One of the largest home textile exporters to the US.

Impact: Strongly Positive – India’s garment exporters are set to gain as buyers diversify away from Chinese supply chains.

4. Specialty Chemicals: A Chemical Rebalancing

What’s Changing

Tariffs on Chinese specialty chemicals may open export opportunities for Indian players, especially those already certified by global clients.

Indian Companies in Focus

Aarti Industries (NSE: AARTIIND) – Supplier of intermediates for agrochemicals and pharma.
Navin Fluorine (NSE: NAVINFLUOR) – Exports fluorinated products to the US.
SRF Ltd (NSE: SRF) – Diversified portfolio includes chemicals and packaging.
Deepak Nitrite (NSE: DEEPAKNTR) – Major player in fine and performance chemicals.

Impact: Highly Positive – Indian chemical players could fill gaps as the US looks beyond China for intermediates.

5. Pharmaceuticals: Opportunity with Caution

What’s Changing

Tariffs on Chinese APIs and medical devices might benefit Indian API and generics suppliers. However, India itself imports over 65 percent of APIs from China, creating a cost risk.

Indian Companies in Focus

Sun Pharma (NSE: SUNPHARMA) – Large US presence, sensitive to trade dynamics.
Divi’s Laboratories (NSE: DIVISLAB) – Strong API exporter with relatively low China dependence.
Lupin (NSE: LUPIN) and Aurobindo Pharma (NSE: AUROPHARMA) – Major US generics exporters.

Impact: Mixed – Gains in export orders, but possible margin pressure due to costlier raw materials from China.

6. Capital Goods and Industrial Equipment: The Infrastructure Side of Tariffs

What’s Changing

Tariffs on Chinese machinery could benefit Indian exporters of industrial equipment.

Indian Companies in Focus

Siemens India (NSE: SIEMENS) – Supplies smart infrastructure and automation solutions.
ABB India (NSE: ABB) – Operates in electrification and robotics; exports globally.
Thermax (NSE: THERMAX) – Provides industrial heating and cooling systems.
BHEL (NSE: BHEL) – Makes power generation equipment.

Impact: Moderately Positive – India may capture marginal demand in select product categories.

7. Packaging Industry: Replacing China in the Supply Chain

What’s Changing

With Chinese flexible packaging and industrial films under scrutiny, Indian packaging firms could plug the gap.

Indian Companies in Focus

Uflex (NSE: UFLEX) – Global player in flexible packaging.
Cosmo First (NSE: COSMOFIRST) – Specializes in BOPP films.
Jindal Poly Films (NSE: JINDALPOLY) – One of India’s largest packaging film producers.

Impact: Positive – India could gain wallet share in packaging exports to the US and EU.

8. IT Services and Outsourcing: Policy Watch Needed

What’s Changing

While not directly tariffed, IT services face indirect exposure if Trump revives his anti-outsourcing rhetoric or tightens H1B visa norms.

Indian Companies in Focus

Infosys (NSE: INFY)
TCS (NSE: TCS)
Wipro (NSE: WIPRO)
LTIMindtree (NSE: LTIM)

Impact: Neutral to Negative – Political and regulatory noise could affect contract renewals or staffing models.

Final Thoughts: India’s Opportunity in Global Realignment

Trump’s tariff threat is not just about penalizing China—it is about rebalancing the entire global trade structure. And in this shake-up, India is increasingly seen as a viable alternative across multiple sectors.

From electronics to chemicals, and textiles to packaging, Indian companies are well-positioned to capture global market share, especially as supply chains diversify away from China.

However, this opportunity also comes with risks. Rising input costs, currency fluctuations, and domestic infrastructure constraints could limit the upside.

For investors, this is the time to watch sectors, not just stocks. Keep an eye on government incentives like the PLI schemes, export growth trends, and global order books to assess the true beneficiaries of this trade shift.

Author’s Note

As global politics and trade tensions evolve, it is important to analyze beyond headlines. Trump’s tariff announcements may seem targeted at China, but their global repercussions offer both opportunities and challenges for India. This article was crafted to help investors, analysts, and curious minds understand these nuanced developments with clarity and depth. Your feedback and questions are always welcome.

— Awdhesh Kumar Dube
Financial and Tech Literacy Blogger

Sources

Reuters – Trump Tariff Proposal 2024
Business Standard – India as China Plus One Alternative
Moneycontrol – Company Fundamentals and Sectoral Views
Mint – PLI Scheme and Global Manufacturing Shift
Economic Times – Expert Views on Tariff Impacts

The Financial And Tech Literacy