How Will Nifty 50 Trade Today? Clues from Top 8 Stocks, Expiry Pressure, and Global Signals

Explore today's potential Nifty 50 trend based on the closing performance of its top 8 heavyweight stocks as of July 25, 2025. Includes PE ratio, RSI levels, global cues, and expiry week technical outlook.

Introduction: Pressure Mounts in Expiry Week

As we enter the final days of the July 2025 series, traders are scrutinizing the Nifty 50 index with a microscope. The benchmark closed at 24,837.00 on July 25, down by 225.10 points or 0.90 percent, signaling broad market weakness. With expiry looming and global markets sending mixed signals, understanding how heavyweight stocks performed is key to forecasting today’s direction.

Let us break down what the data is telling us, beginning with India’s market giants.

Performance of Top Nifty 50 Stocks (as of July 25, 2025)

These 8 stocks account for over 50% of the Nifty 50 index's weight. Their price movement, valuation (PE), and momentum (RSI) provide clear signals about the underlying sentiment.

Stock	Weightage	Closing Price (INR)	Change (%)	PE Ratio	RSI
HDFC Bank	13.19	2004.60	-0.48	17.4	42.8
ICICI Bank	8.91	1477.10	-0.42	19.6	46.1
Reliance	8.79	1391.70	-0.80	24.3	44.3
Infosys	4.99	1515.70	-2.37	21.8	38.6
Bharti Airtel	4.74	1937.90	+0.09	27.2	51.2
L and T	3.73	3442.90	-0.99	29.7	47.5
ITC	3.35	409.40	-0.13	26.4	49.1
TCS	3.06	3135.80	-0.39	28.1	45.7

What These Numbers Reveal

Infosys was the biggest drag, falling 2.37 percent. Its RSI of 38.6 suggests it's nearing oversold territory, hinting at potential short-term bottom fishing.
Bharti Airtel emerged as the lone gainer, rising slightly by 0.09 percent. With a relatively stable RSI of 51.2, it signals balanced momentum.
HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, with PE ratios of 17.4 and 19.6, respectively, look attractive from a valuation perspective and may see support if sentiment turns.
Overall RSI readings remain below 50 for most, indicating weak-to-neutral momentum.

Technical Overview: Nifty 50 At a Crucial Support Zone

The Nifty 50 has fallen around 12.38 percent from its all-time high of 26,277.35 recorded on September 27, 2024.
Currently trading at 24,837.00, the index is at a significant psychological and technical support zone.
The RSI of Nifty 50 hovers around 44, which shows weakening momentum, but not in oversold territory yet.
The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is sloping downward, and the index is trading below both the 50 and 200 DMA levels—indicative of a bearish short- to medium-term trend.

Given that this is expiry week, traders can expect heightened volatility with possibilities of short-covering rallies, especially if today’s global cues stabilize.

US Market Closing on July 25, 2025: Weak Finish

On July 25, US indices closed lower, continuing their correction from recent highs:

Dow Jones fell by 377 points
NASDAQ dropped 183 points
S&P 500 ended 43 points down

Tech stocks led the decline, influenced by mixed earnings, a stronger dollar, and continued uncertainty around the Fed’s next rate decision. This has had a cooling effect on global equity sentiment.

This Morning’s Global Market Cues

US Futures (Pre-market)

All three major US futures indices are trading marginally lower to flat, suggesting indecision rather than panic.
Traders appear cautious ahead of macroeconomic data releases and earnings.

GIFT Nifty (Earlier SGX Nifty)

GIFT Nifty is trading nearly flat near 24,845 levels, indicating a likely flat to mildly positive opening for Indian indices.

ASEAN Market Opening (Today)

Asian markets opened on a mixed note:
- Nikkei and Hang Seng are down mildly.
- Straits Times Index and the Kospi are flat to slightly up.
- Shanghai Composite shows marginal strength.

While no major trigger is visible, the lack of sharp selling pressure in Asia offers some hope for Indian bulls.

Crude Oil Market Summary

Brent Crude is trading at 81.23 dollars per barrel, up 0.42 percent.
Oil prices have rebounded mildly due to OPEC+ comments on supply discipline and potential hurricane-related supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico.
Rising crude is a mild negative for Indian equities due to inflationary and fiscal pressure.

What Can Trigger Nifty Today?

Short Covering Before Expiry: Many traders have built short positions. A flat or positive global market could lead to intraday short covering.
Oversold Tech Giants: Stocks like Infosys may attract bargain hunters at current RSI levels.
Valuation Support from Banks: HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank’s moderate PE levels could limit downside.
Resistance Ahead: On the upside, Nifty faces immediate resistance at the 25,100 and 25,300 levels. Support lies at 24,700.

Conclusion: Expect Volatile Yet Opportunity-Driven Trading

As the expiry week progresses, traders should expect volatility with sudden intraday reversals. The Nifty 50 remains under pressure due to global headwinds and poor participation from top heavyweight stocks. However, bargain buying in select banks and IT names may trigger pullbacks.

The market’s ability to stay above 24,700 could build a base for a technical bounce, especially if global sentiment remains stable.

Author’s Note

This article aims to decode today’s possible Nifty movement using data from its most influential constituents and global market behavior. With expiry pressures and mixed global cues, intraday strategies should be dynamic, risk-managed, and technically informed. Stay tuned for further updates on www.financialtechguide.com.

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