Nifty 50 Likely to Open Lower Amid Global Weakness; Technicals Suggest Short Covering or Unwinding Ahead of Weekly Expiry
Nifty 50 may open in the red as Gift Nifty falls 90 pts amid weak US futures and mixed ASEAN markets. Here's a detailed look at the July 15 closing data of Nifty 50 and its top 10 stocks with technical cues and expiry-day strategy.
Indian equities may face a soft opening on Wednesday, July 16, as global sentiment turns cautious. The Gift Nifty is trading 90 points lower, hinting at a gap-down start. This follows mixed action in the ASEAN region and weakness in US futures, putting pressure on broader risk appetite.
This cautious tone comes a day ahead of the weekly F&O expiry, which may lead to heightened volatility and possible unwinding or short covering in Nifty 50 constituents.
Nifty 50: July 15, 2025 – Last Closing Snapshot
| Index | Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 25,195.80 | +113.50 points | +0.45% |
Top 10 Nifty 50 Constituents (July 15 Close): Performance & Technical Setup
| Stock | Close (₹) | Change (₹) | % Change | Weightage | Technical View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDFC Bank | 1995.50 | +12.50 | +0.63% | 13.19% | Facing resistance at ₹2000; above ₹2025, short covering likely |
| ICICI Bank | 1430.80 | +7.80 | +0.55% | 8.91% | Strong base at ₹1400; holding above 50-DMA |
| Reliance | 1485.40 | +1.70 | +0.11% | 8.79% | Sideways; watch ₹1470–₹1500 zone for breakout/failure |
| Infosys | 1585.60 | +15.30 | +0.97% | 4.99% | RSI entering overbought zone; ₹1600 crucial hurdle |
| Bharti Airtel | 1934.20 | +13.30 | +0.69% | 4.74% | Ascending channel support intact; momentum intact |
| L&T | 3494.00 | -1.90 | -0.05% | 3.73% | Weak below ₹3480; potential pullback zone at ₹3450 |
| ITC | 422.10 | +2.70 | +0.64% | 3.35% | Near 200-DMA; bounce expected if ₹420 holds |
| TCS | 3252.30 | +29.60 | +0.92% | 3.06% | Positive bias above ₹3220; room till ₹3300 |
| Axis Bank | 1165.90 | -6.80 | -0.58% | 2.97% | Weak closing; risk of more selling below ₹1155 |
| Kotak Bank | 2188.10 | -15.70 | -0.71% | 2.75% | Below 20-DMA; bears active till ₹2160 level |
Expiry Strategy Insight:
Watch for short covering in stocks like HDFC Bank, Infosys, and TCS if index sustains above 25,150.
Unwinding may intensify in Kotak Bank and Axis Bank below key levels.
Morning Snapshot: ASEAN Markets (as of 07:56 AM IST)
| Index | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 39,665.50 | -12.52 | -0.03% |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,559.30 | -71.00 | -0.82% |
| Shanghai | 3,502.83 | -2.17 | -0.06% |
| SZSE Component | 10,752.14 | +7.58 | +0.07% |
| China A50 | 13,731.41 | -61.38 | -0.45% |
| PSEi (Philippines) | 6,367.15 | -92.32 | -1.43% |
| Hang Seng | 24,742.50 | +152.38 | +0.62% |
| KOSPI (South Korea) | 3,197.85 | -17.43 | -0.54% |
ASEAN Summary:
Mixed sentiment. Australia, China A50, and Philippines show losses, while Hang Seng provides mild support.
US Futures (as of 07:55 AM IST)
| Index | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 30 (Dow) | 43,966.0 | -56.9 | -0.13% |
| US 500 (S&P) | 6,236.1 | -7.6 | -0.12% |
| US Tech 100 | 22,856.4 | -28.2 | -0.12% |
| US 2000 | 2,203.2 | -1.9 | -0.08% |
| S&P 500 VIX | 19.53 | +0.14 | +0.72% |
Takeaway:
Tech-heavy indices are trading weak. S&P 500 VIX rising suggests increased volatility ahead of earnings season, likely influencing Indian IT stocks intraday.
Gift Nifty Indication – Lower Start Ahead
-
Gift Nifty trades ~90 points lower, reflecting cautious investor mood amid:
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Weak global futures
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ASEAN underperformance
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Expiry-linked profit booking
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Likely opening range for Nifty 50: 25,100 – 25,150, with volatility expected to rise as we move closer to the Thursday weekly expiry.
Key Technical Levels for Nifty 50 (Short-Term)
| Level | Range (₹) |
|---|---|
| Immediate Support | 25,030 – 25,050 |
| Intraday Floor | 24,950 |
| Resistance Zone | 25,250 – 25,300 |
| Breakout Level | 25,350 |
What to Watch Today
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Intraday response to the Gift Nifty drop
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Institutional flows (FII/DII positioning ahead of expiry)
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IT sector response to weak US Tech Futures
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Bank Nifty performance led by Axis and Kotak rebound or further slide
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VIX and OI activity post 11 AM for expiry strategy
Author’s Note
The July 15 rally in the Nifty 50 was led by IT and banks, but that momentum is unlikely to sustain this morning. Weak US tech cues, a red Gift Nifty, and mixed ASEAN action signal a risk-off start. However, this pullback may present a short-covering opportunity, especially if Nifty defends 25,000.
With expiry tomorrow, volatility is likely to spike, offering tactical traders both long unwinding and intraday short covering setups. Stay nimble, manage risk, and watch volume confirmation on key supports.
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