Nifty 50 Outlook for July 30: Expiry Volatility Ahead as Reliance, L&T Lead Bulls

A detailed market outlook for Nifty 50 trading on July 30, 2025, based on the top 8 heavyweight stocks' performance, RSI, P/E, US market closing, morning global cues, expiry pressures, and GIFT Nifty flat trade.

Introduction: Calm Before the Storm?

As we enter the midweek trading session on July 30, 2025, Indian stock markets find themselves at a pivotal moment. With the monthly expiry for July just around the corner, market participants are closely monitoring heavyweight stocks and global signals to gauge the likely trend. The Nifty 50 closed the previous day with a slight positive bias, supported by gains in banking and cyclical sectors, though some pressure from leading tech stocks capped broader upside.

The broader mood, however, remains cautiously optimistic with global futures pointing green, crude prices steady, and ASEAN markets showing a mixed trend. In India, the focus is squarely on expiry positioning, institutional flows, and how the top 8 Nifty 50 constituents are shaping up technically.

Let’s break down the cues step-by-step to forecast how the Nifty 50 could trade today.

Top 8 Nifty 50 Stocks: Closing on July 29, 2025

Stock	Price (₹)	Change	Percent Change	Weightage	P/E Ratio	RSI (14D)
HDFC Bank	2021.60	+13.10	+0.65	13.19%	17.8	54.2
ICICI Bank	1486.20	-2.20	-0.15	8.91%	19.4	51.0
Reliance	1417.10	+29.50	+2.13	8.79%	22.1	58.9
Infosys	1513.70	-2.30	-0.15	4.99%	26.3	47.6
Bharti Airtel	1918.30	+28.00	+1.48	4.74%	19.9	57.2
L & T	3495.60	+73.40	+2.14	3.73%	30.6	64.5
ITC	408.45	-1.45	-0.35	3.35%	21.7	49.3
TCS	3056.00	-23.30	-0.76	3.06%	28.5	45.8

Technical Interpretation of Heavyweights

Positive Momentum Stocks:
L & T (RSI: 64.5) is leading the pack with strong momentum and remains technically bullish with no signs of fatigue.
Reliance (RSI: 58.9) gained sharply and shows signs of sustained accumulation.
Bharti Airtel (RSI: 57.2) is gaining ground and could be a breakout candidate.
HDFC Bank (RSI: 54.2) is showing a stable upmove and remains attractive from a valuation standpoint.

Weak Momentum Stocks:
TCS (RSI: 45.8) appears weak both in RSI and price action.
Infosys (RSI: 47.6) is in consolidation with no visible triggers.
ITC (RSI: 49.3) continues to trade in a narrow range.

Attractive Valuations (P/E < 20):
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Bharti Airtel present strong long-term opportunities.

Nifty 50 Technical View (As of July 29, 2025, Close)

Last Close: 24,680.90
Daily Range: Consolidation seen between 24,550 and 24,720
Support Zone: 24,500 followed by 24,300
Resistance: 24,800 to 25,000
RSI: Near 53 – Neutral with a bullish tilt
MACD: On the verge of a crossover, indicating building momentum

Interpretation: The index is showing signs of recovery after recent volatility. A sustained move above 24,800 could lead to short-covering, especially due to expiry-driven activity.

US Market Recap – July 29, 2025

Global investors turned cautious overnight:

Dow Jones: Down 204.57 points or 0.46 percent
S and P 500: Down 18.91 points or 0.30 percent
Nasdaq: Down 80.29 points or 0.38 percent
Russell 2000: Down 13.77 points or 0.61 percent
VIX: Up 6.32 percent to 15.98

Key takeaway: U.S. markets faced broad-based declines due to rising yields and global growth concerns.

US Futures – Morning Outlook (July 30, 2025)

Dow Jones Futures: 44,683.3, up 50.3 points
S and P 500 Futures: 6,381.6, up 10.7 points
Nasdaq Futures: 23,355.3, up 47.0 points
Russell 2000 Futures: 2,253.4, up 10.4 points
VIX Futures: 17.80, down slightly by 0.04 points

What it means: Futures trading in green after overnight losses suggests optimism for a recovery-led bounce in global equities.

ASEAN and Asia-Pacific Markets Opening Summary

Nikkei 225: Down 15.05 points or 0.04 percent
Hang Seng: Down 78.45 points or 0.31 percent
PSEi (Philippines): Down 7.71 points or 0.12 percent
SZSE Component: Down 17.55 points or 0.15 percent
Shanghai Composite: Up 16.88 points or 0.47 percent
China A50: Up 47.76 points or 0.34 percent
KOSPI: Up 20.54 points or 0.64 percent
ASX 200 (Australia): Up 56.00 points or 0.64 percent

Overall sentiment: Mixed performance across the region, with strength in China and Korea and weakness in Japan and Hong Kong.

Oil and Gas Market Summary

WTI Crude: 69.23 dollars, up by 0.02
Brent Crude: 71.77 dollars, up by 0.09
Natural Gas: 3.153 dollars, down by 0.009
Gasoline RBOB: 2.1830 dollars, up by 0.0071

Interpretation: Oil remains largely stable with mild bullish bias. No immediate concerns for inflation or fiscal deficit from crude oil prices.

GIFT Nifty: Domestic Clue

GIFT Nifty is trading flat around 24,685 to 24,700, indicating a muted open for the Indian market. No major surprise is expected at the opening bell.

Final Outlook: How Will Nifty Trade Today?

Bullish Triggers:
Strong price action in L and T, Reliance, and Bharti Airtel
Supportive global cues from U.S. futures and Asian markets
Stable oil prices
Banking stocks with attractive valuations

Headwinds:
Weakness in TCS and Infosys may cap upside
Elevated VIX and overnight correction in US indices
Expiry-related volatility

Expected Scenarios

Scenario 1: Breakout
If the Nifty crosses 24,800 with high volume, we may see a move toward 25,000 to 25,050, led by short-covering.

Scenario 2: Sideways to Mild Weakness
If the index fails to hold 24,650, a dip toward 24,500 to 24,300 is likely.

Conclusion

The market is delicately poised on July 30, 2025. While heavyweight participation from L&T, Reliance, and Bharti Airtel suggests optimism, overnight global weakness and tech stock drag may prevent an immediate rally. A sustained move above 24,800 could trigger expiry-related fireworks. Traders should remain cautious and nimble, especially during this crucial expiry week.

Author's Note
Expiry sessions often see sharp and sudden moves. With key technical and global indicators flashing mixed signals, it is wise to stay alert and let the market lead the way.

The Financial And Tech Literacy