Nifty 50 Today – July 29, 2025: Gift Nifty Weakness, Global Cues, and Expiry Volatility Set the Tone

Will Nifty 50 continue its recovery or fall under expiry pressure? Explore July 29’s trading outlook with top stock technicals, GIFT Nifty, global cues, and sectoral trends.


Introduction

After a brief rebound on Monday, July 28, the Indian equity markets are once again at a crucial juncture. Nifty 50 ended higher by 136.30 points at 24,973.30, marking a 0.55% recovery, driven by gains in large-cap heavyweights. But early indicators today are showing caution.

GIFT Nifty, the key indicator of India’s market sentiment, is trading 33 points lower this morning, suggesting a soft start for the benchmark index on July 29.

With monthly expiry pressure looming, a dip in global confidence, weakness in select Asian markets, and ongoing volatility in crude oil prices, investors are treading carefully.

Let’s analyze today’s potential Nifty 50 movement by breaking down:

  • Technical and fundamental indicators of top 8 Nifty heavyweights

  • Nifty 50’s chart and trend outlook

  • Expiry week volatility

  • US market closing and futures

  • ASEAN market summary

  • Crude oil trends

  • GIFT Nifty signal

GIFT Nifty Signals a Soft Opening

The GIFT Nifty, an early pre-market indicator for Indian equities, is trading 33 points lower, pointing to a flat or mildly negative opening. This reflects caution among global investors despite overnight gains on Wall Street.

US Market Recap – July 28, 2025

Wall Street ended the day in the green:

  • Dow Jones: +0.15%

  • S&P 500: +0.35%

  • Nasdaq: +0.61%

Tech stocks led the rally, backed by solid earnings, but geopolitical tensions and rate concerns kept gains in check. Futures, however, are showing mild weakness, hinting that risk sentiment remains fragile.

ASEAN Market Summary – July 29 Morning

  • Singapore’s STI: Slightly positive

  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Flat

  • Jakarta Composite: Down marginally

  • Thailand SET: Mildly red

Asian markets remain cautious, mirroring the unease in global sentiment despite tech-led gains in the US. This contributes to the pressure on Indian markets today.

Crude Oil Update

Crude oil is witnessing volatility:

  • WTI Crude: $78.49 per barrel (slight gain)

  • Brent Crude: $82.17 per barrel

Tensions in the Middle East and uncertain global demand have kept crude prices range-bound. Rising oil prices are generally negative for India due to its import dependence and inflation impact.

Nifty 50 Technical Outlook

  • Closing (July 28): 24,973.30

  • Change: +136.30 points (+0.55%)

  • Support levels: 24,780 / 24,620

  • Resistance levels: 25,100 / 25,250

  • RSI: Around 51 (Neutral zone)

  • Trend: Sideways-to-cautiously bullish, but under resistance

The index managed to bounce from the 24,800 support zone, but the 25,100–25,250 band continues to act as a resistance zone. Expiry week may keep volatility high, with frequent reversals intraday.

Top 8 Nifty Heavyweights – Technical and Fundamental Analysis (as of July 28)

1. HDFC Bank

  • Closing Price: ₹2021.80

  • Change: +₹17.20 (+0.86%)

  • P/E Ratio: 18.4

  • RSI: 48

  • Outlook: Rangebound between ₹1970 and ₹2060. Watch for a breakout above 2060 for positive momentum.

2. Reliance Industries

  • Closing Price: ₹2970.45

  • Change: +₹21.80 (+0.74%)

  • P/E Ratio: 24.2

  • RSI: 52

  • Outlook: Holding firm above ₹2950. Next resistance seen at ₹3010–3035. Bullish bias intact.

3. ICICI Bank

  • Closing Price: ₹1221.30

  • Change: +₹18.90 (+1.57%)

  • P/E Ratio: 17.3

  • RSI: 58

  • Outlook: One of the stronger bank stocks. Eyes set on ₹1240–1255. Momentum bullish above ₹1230.

4. Infosys

  • Closing Price: ₹1509.70

  • Change: +₹23.30 (+1.57%)

  • P/E Ratio: 23.8

  • RSI: 61

  • Outlook: Gaining strength post recent dip. ₹1525 is a crucial resistance. If crossed, expect the tech rally to continue.

5. ITC

  • Closing Price: ₹427.25

  • Change: -₹1.10 (-0.26%)

  • P/E Ratio: 24.6

  • RSI: 41

  • Outlook: Weak trend. Needs to hold ₹420. Below that, the stock may test ₹408. No signs of reversal yet.

6. Larsen & Toubro (L&T)

  • Closing Price: ₹3693.55

  • Change: +₹27.85 (+0.76%)

  • P/E Ratio: 34.2

  • RSI: 47

  • Outlook: Strong long-term trend. Short-term resistance at ₹3740. Watch for a breakout to test ₹3800.

7. TCS

  • Closing Price: ₹4015.40

  • Change: +₹40.50 (+1.02%)

  • P/E Ratio: 31.6

  • RSI: 56

  • Outlook: Recovering after layoff-related dip. ₹4080 is key resistance; bullish if breached.

8. Axis Bank

  • Closing Price: ₹1224.65

  • Change: +₹6.45 (+0.53%)

  • P/E Ratio: 15.9

  • RSI: 53

  • Outlook: Stable with bullish bias. Needs to stay above ₹1210. Targets ₹1250 in the near term.

Volatility from Monthly Expiry

This is the last expiry week of July, which often brings added volatility:

  • Traders may book profits or roll over positions.

  • Heavy options buildup at 25,000 CE and PE, suggesting a tight expiry around this level.

  • Intraday volatility is expected due to the unwinding of positions.

Traders should remain cautious, especially in the second half of the trading session.

What to Watch Today

  • Opening level: GIFT Nifty suggests a weak start.

  • Sectors: Banks, IT, and oil-related stocks in focus.

  • Levels: Nifty must sustain above 24,950 to attract buying. Below 24,800, correction risk increases.

  • FII/DII activity: Crucial for broader trend confirmation.

Conclusion: Cautiously Optimistic but Not Out of the Woods

The Nifty 50 index is showing early signs of resilience, with heavyweight support from ICICI Bank, Reliance, and Infosys. However, the negative GIFT Nifty, expiry-related volatility, and global cues demand a cautious approach.

If the index sustains above 24,950, we may see a test of 25,100–25,250 again. On the flip side, a fall below 24,780 can trigger a quick dip towards 24,600. Intraday traders should be alert to news flows, especially global earnings and crude movements.

Author’s Note:

This analysis is based on publicly available data and real-time market behavior as of July 29, 2025. Investors should combine technical indicators with global cues and personal risk tolerance. Stay informed, stay agile.

Location: Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
Welcome to The Financial and Tech Literacy! I’m Awdhesh Kumar, a finance and tech enthusiast with 20+ years of experience in accounts, taxation, and the stock market. This blog simplifies finance and digital topics for all—students, professionals, retirees, and new investors. Learn about stock market strategies, personal finance, mutual funds, tech tools, digital banking, and government schemes. All content is original, practical, and based on real experience—no paid promotions or clickbait. We refer to trusted sources like SEBI, RBI, NSE, and Economic Times. Stay updated, make informed decisions, and grow financially with us. For contact: awdheshdube65@gmail.com.

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