Reliance Stock Price Sudden Fall: What Triggered the Slide?

On July 9, 2025, Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL), one of India's most influential blue-chip stocks and a heavyweight in the Nifty 50, saw an unexpected and sharp drop in its share price. Closing at ₹1,519, down nearly 1.21 percent, the fall raised eyebrows across Dalal Street. This sudden correction came despite positive cues from global markets and a resilient broader market tone.

What Caused the Sudden Fall in Reliance Stock?

Several intertwined factors contributed to the decline in Reliance’s share price. Let’s break down the key triggers:

1. Delay in Jio IPO

One of the major dampeners was the delay in the highly anticipated IPO of Reliance Jio, the telecom and digital services arm of the conglomerate. Investors have been pricing in strong value unlocking from the Jio IPO, originally expected by Q2 of FY25. However, management's revised guidance has pushed it back due to ongoing regulatory and valuation considerations.

This delay led to disappointment among long-term investors expecting capital unlocking, which triggered selling pressure.

2. FII Outflows and Index Rebalancing Concerns

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who hold a significant chunk of Reliance shares, have recently turned net sellers in the Indian markets. With valuation concerns creeping in and global volatility rising due to renewed US tariffs and bond yield spikes, heavyweights like Reliance often bear the brunt of institutional rebalancing.

3. Market Rotation and Sectoral Shift

There is a growing rotation from large-cap defensives to midcaps and specific themes like defense, infrastructure, and capital goods. This shift caused passive outflows from Reliance and similar heavyweight names, despite their stable earnings outlook.

Reliance: Fundamental Snapshot

Despite the price correction, Reliance remains fundamentally strong. Here’s a quick look at key metrics:

Market Cap: Over ₹10 lakh crore
P/E Ratio: ~24x, in line with long-term averages
Revenue Growth: 10 percent YoY in Q4 FY25
Net Profit: ₹21,243 crore in Q4, backed by strong retail and O2C (Oil-to-Chemicals) performance
Debt to Equity: 0.40, significantly improved from pandemic-era highs

Reliance's diversified revenue stream—spanning telecom, retail, oil refining, green energy, and digital—continues to provide a strong moat. Its recent foray into battery storage and hydrogen projects keeps it aligned with India’s green energy ambitions.

Technical Analysis: Reliance Under Pressure

Technically, Reliance’s chart reflects key bearish signals:

Price: ₹1,519
50-Day Moving Average (DMA): ₹1,558
200-Day Moving Average (DMA): ₹1,498
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 43 (showing neutral to bearish momentum)
MACD: Negative crossover

The stock broke below its short-term support of ₹1,530 and is now hovering just above its 200 DMA at ₹1,498. A breach of this level could trigger further downside toward ₹1,465–1,480 zones, where the stock had previously consolidated.

Resistance on the upside is seen near ₹1,550 and ₹1,585. Only a sustained close above these levels could resume the bullish trend.

Impact on Broader Indices

Reliance holds around 8.8 percent weight in the Nifty 50 and about 11.3 percent in the Sensex. Its fall contributed nearly 25 points to the Nifty 50’s decline on July 9, 2025. The broader indices remained relatively stable, cushioned by gains in FMCG, auto, and some PSU bank stocks.

Global Cues and Sentiment

While Indian equities showed some weakness, global markets had a positive tone. The Dow Jones and NASDAQ closed higher by 0.49 percent and 0.94 percent, respectively, led by optimism around easing inflation data and a tech rally.

However, President Trump’s renewed tariff threats on BRICS nations, including India, weighed on investor sentiment. Though not immediately enforceable, these announcements raise concerns over future trade dynamics, particularly in the energy and petrochemicals sectors, which are key to Reliance’s O2C business.

Options Chain Data: Reflecting Uncertainty

The Nifty 50 options chain showed high open interest build-up at the 25,500 call and 25,400 put strikes, indicating a likely expiry range of 25,350–25,600. With Reliance’s fall dragging the index closer to the lower end, bulls now rely on strong support zones and potential short covering to hold ground.

The Put Call Ratio (PCR) dropped to 0.82, indicating rising caution and possible fresh short build-up in heavyweight counters, including Reliance.

What Should Investors Watch?

1. ₹1,498–1,500 Zone Crucial

This is a decisive level for Reliance. Any breakdown below it could signal near-term weakness and invite technical selling.

2. Jio IPO Timeline

Markets will closely track any updates on the revised timeline. A concrete announcement could lead to a re-rating of the stock.

3. Global Policy Updates

Trade-related rhetoric from the US and updates on crude oil prices will impact Reliance’s petrochemical and refining margins.

4. Institutional Flows

Any shift in FII stance from net selling to buying could stabilize Reliance and broader markets.

Conclusion

While the sudden fall in Reliance stock has rattled market participants, the broader picture remains intact. Fundamentally, the company continues to deliver across verticals. Technically, a critical support is being tested. The coming sessions will be crucial to see whether it holds or breaks.

For long-term investors, this correction may offer a buying opportunity, especially if the stock holds above its 200 DMA. For traders, the ₹1,498–1,530 zone becomes a make-or-break band for the short term.

Author’s Note

As someone who believes in decoding market moves for both retail and institutional readers, I see Reliance’s dip as a reminder of how sentiment and timing can override even the strongest fundamentals in the short term. This article is not financial advice, but an effort to humanize and demystify market movements for informed decision-making.

Stay disciplined. Stay curious.

The Financial And Tech Literacy