Reliance’s Solar Sunrise: Nomura’s Game‑Changing Target and a Deep Dive into India’s Solar Aspirations

Discover how Nomura’s bullish stance on Reliance’s solar ambitions could trigger a ‘Jio‑like’ rerating. Dive into the end‑to‑end solar strategy—from HJT panel production and module assembly to power generation, storage, and business integration.

1. Nomura’s Big Play: Why Reliance Could Be Next‑Gen Solar King

A recent broker report from Nomura has turned heads by raising its target price for Reliance Industries to ₹1,650, reinforcing a “Buy” recommendation. But the truly eye‑catching news comes from Nuvama, which estimates the solar module line could add ₹3,800 crore (about 6%) to Reliance's net profits. They’ve even set a target price of ₹1,801, emphasizing a potential Jio‑like valuation rerate if solar ambitions materialize.

At its core, Nomura and affiliates see Reliance’s in‑house solar strategy — particularly the introduction of advanced heterojunction (HJT) modules — as a catalyst for transforming not just the energy business, but also the conglomerate’s entire market valuation.

2. Fast‑Track to Module Manufacturing: From Silicon to HJT Innovation

a) HJT: What Makes It Special?

Heterojunction Technology (HJT) panels combine crystalline silicon with amorphous silicon to enhance efficiency (up to ~25%) and reduce degradation. Their higher upfront cost pays off through longevity and superior output, ideal for large-scale installations.

b) Reliance’s Facility and Phase‑Wise Capacity Growth

Reliance recently commissioned its first 1 GW HJT line, aiming to expand to 10 GW by early CY‑26. This translates into integrated manufacturing capacity across silicon cell production, module assembly, and eventually, downstream deployment.

c) Why the Focus on Domestic Sales?

Industry feedback indicates Reliance plans to sell modules domestically rather than exporting, capitalizing on India’s rising demand for solar infrastructure. Early monetization through module sales allows time to build out power generation and storage capacity.

3. Strategic Sequencing: From Modules to Power Generation

Reliance’s solar business is structured like a well‑oiled machine, with a step-by-step rollout:

Module Manufacturing: Established and scaling HJT production.
Power Generation: Building behind-the-meter and utility-scale solar farms to utilize their own modules.
Energy Storage: Setting up 30 GWh battery storage capacity for load balancing and peak energy supply.
Green Hydrogen & Electrolyzers: Advancing low-carbon hydrogen capabilities via tech tie-ups.
Compressed Biogas (CBG): Planning 55 CBG plants to diversify renewable output.
Net Zero by 2035: With full integration, aligning with Reliance's environmental and decarbonization roadmap.

This vertical integration—from raw input to power output and storage—allows improved cost control, profit diversification, and strong market leverage.

4. Money & Valuation: How Solar Rescues the Rate

a) Valuation Insights from the Street

Nuvama estimates Reliance's solar arm (20 GW capacity) carries an implied enterprise value of $20 billion, assuming a 15× EV/EBITDA multiple, comparable to focused solar players.

b) Earnings Power Explained

Their model suggests that by FY27–FY30, the solar & power vertical’s PAT will surge from ₹ 2,000 crore to ₹ 11,400 crore—a CAGR of ~140%. By FY30, New Energy could contribute nearly 9% of Reliance’s PAT. Combined with faster growth, this pushes the share of programmable EBITDA higher than the current ~50% reliance on oil-to-chemicals.

c) Triggering a Jio-Style Rerating?

Drawing parallels with Reliance Jio’s disruptor-style growth after its 2017 launch, analysts believe solar could represent a similar inflection point in valuation.

5. Operational Blueprint: Doing Solar Right

a) Internal Manufacturing Setup

Convert or build new captive fabs for HJT cells and module conduction.
Use mass‑automation for assembly line efficiency, minimizing manual labor and defects.

b) Quality & Certification

Adhere to IEC/BIS standards and introduce in-line efficiency testing for module output assurances.

c) Sales & Integration

B2B sales to solar developers, EPCs, and utilities.
Implement captive use across Reliance's retail, industrial, and telecom infrastructure.

d) Constructing Solar Farms

Leverage own land or PPAs for greenfield plants.
Use E2E modules to reduce supply chain constraints and realize higher margins.

e) Building Energy Storage

Install grid-scale batteries (likely Li-ion or advanced chemistries).
Provide grid services during peak demand and frequency support.

f) Expanding Green Hydrogen

Use renewable electricity to run electrolyzers, converting water into hydrogen, used in steel, transport, refining, etc.

g) CBG Plants

Use agricultural waste or biomass to create renewable gas—synergizing with industrial and rural energy use.

h) Carbon & ESG Reporting

Full monitoring and public disclosures on net-zero goals by 2035.

6. Challenges & Risk Factors

Capex and Execution Risk: A ₹20 bn EV solar business isn't built overnight—execution stakes are high.
Technological Transition: HJT efficiency and cost position must compete with Tier 1 global suppliers.
Market Competition: India’s solar players—Adani, Tata Power, JSW—pose fierce competition with established modules and installations.
Regulatory Flux: Policy risks around renewable incentives and import duties could alter cost equation.
Financing Needs: Securing debt, tax credits, or external funding is essential to support large-scale projects.

7. What the Market Sees Next

Upcoming Catalysts: Analysts flag a potentially seismic valuation event at Reliance’s AGM in August/September.
Integrated Investment Opportunity: Solar rides on Reliance’s established ecosystem—digital (Jio), retail, O2C—meaning solar success could catalyze ripple effects across all segments.
Sustainable Future Roadmap: Moving from 1 GW to 10/20 GW HJT and beyond supports a greener, India-aligned industrial footprint.

8. Conclusion: More Than Solar — Reliance’s Reinvention

Nomura and its affiliates have spotlighted Reliance's solar push as a key pivot point. With strong financial modeling, high-efficiency HJT manufacturing, and a strategic integration of storage, green hydrogen, and biogas, analysts see this as more than a business expansion—it’s a transformation embodying the energy transition.

If milestones are met—such as module capacity, battery rollout, and farm deployments—Reliance may well enjoy a Jio-level "moment" in market sentiment. ₹1,650–1,800 may soon seem tame for a powerhouse weaving solar into the fabric of sustainable India.

Author’s Note:

This blog is designed to provide investors, analysts, and clean-energy enthusiasts with a comprehensive and easy-to-understand look into Reliance’s ambitious solar initiatives. From technology to valuation to execution, it breaks down why this could be India’s next big inflection point in green energy leadership.

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