Can Nifty 50 Rebound Today or Will Weakness Continue? A Full Market Breakdown for August 4, 2025

Nifty 50 closed lower on August 1 as heavyweight stocks dragged the index down. Will August 4 bring recovery? We analyze top stock valuations, including PE and RSI, US market moves, GIFT Nifty, global cues, commodities, and the Trump tariff tension to understand what lies ahead.

Introduction: Can the Bulls Regain Control?

On August 1, 2025, the Indian equity benchmark Nifty 50 closed at 24,565.35, falling 203 points or 0.82 percent. A combination of profit booking, weakness in tech and capital goods, and global nervousness weighed on investor sentiment.

Today, August 4, begins with encouraging signals such as a positive GIFT Nifty, green US Futures, and slightly reduced volatility. But the big question remains—will this setup translate into a sustainable market recovery, or is it just a temporary bounce before deeper corrections?

In this detailed breakdown, we cover:

The performance and valuation of the top Nifty 50 stocks (PE and RSI included)
Global market cues from the US and Asia
Commodity and currency updates
Technical view of Nifty 50
Geopolitical risks from Trump’s tariff policies

Top 8 Nifty 50 Heavyweights: Valuations Reveal the Real Story

These eight companies account for over half of the Nifty 50's total weight. Their individual performances largely determine the direction of the overall index. Below is their August 1 closing data, along with valuation (PE) and momentum (RSI) metrics.

Stock	Weightage	Close Price	Price Change	Percentage Change	PE Ratio	RSI	Impact
HDFC Bank	13.71	2012.20	Minus 6.00	Minus 0.30	17.9	54	Mild Drag
ICICI Bank	9.41	1471.60	Minus 9.80	Minus 0.66	20.4	52	Weakness
Reliance	8.39	1393.70	Plus 3.50	Plus 0.25	23.8	58	Mild Support
Infosys	4.84	1469.60	Minus 39.40	Minus 2.61	25.6	42	Strong Drag
Bharti Airtel	4.65	1884.40	Minus 29.90	Minus 1.56	18.2	47	Negative
Larsen and Toubro	3.80	3587.30	Minus 49.20	Minus 1.35	28.1	45	Negative
ITC	3.42	416.45	Plus 4.50	Plus 1.09	21.6	60	Strong Support
TCS	2.76	3003.00	Minus 33.80	Minus 1.11	29.5	46	Negative

Key Observations:

Six of eight heavyweights closed in red.
Infosys and TCS showed sharp declines, with low RSI indicating weak momentum.
ITC and Reliance posted gains and supported the index.
Most stocks have moderate to high P/E ratios, but not overly stretched.

Global Cues: What’s Happening Around the World?

US Market Closing on August 2, 2025

Index	Closing Level	Point Change	Percent Change
Dow Jones	43,588.58	Minus 542.40	Minus 1.23
S and P 500	6,238.01	Minus 101.38	Minus 1.60
Nasdaq	20,650.13	Minus 472.32	Minus 2.24
Russell 2000	2,166.78	Minus 44.87	Minus 2.03
VIX Index	20.38	Plus 3.66	Plus 21.89

A broad-based sell-off in the US market spooked global sentiment. Technology and small-cap stocks saw the steepest losses, and the volatility index VIX surged, reflecting increased investor fear.

US Futures Show Signs of Stabilization

Index	Futures Value	Point Change	Sentiment
Dow Futures	43,693.5	Plus 104.9	Mild Recovery
S and P 500	6,256.6	Plus 18.6	Optimism
Nasdaq 100	22,845.6	Plus 82.3	Tech Rebound
VIX Futures	19.53	Minus 0.32	Fear Cooling

The green futures and a decline in VIX suggest a positive setup for the Indian market, at least in the early hours of trade.

Asian Market Snapshot: Stabilizing, with Some Weakness

Market	Direction	Percent Change	Remarks
Nikkei Japan	Falling	Minus 1.76	Weakest in the region
KOSPI South Korea	Rising	Plus 0.68	Best performer
Hang Seng	Positive	Plus 0.36	Mild rebound
Shanghai Composite	Stable	Plus 0.20	Resilient performance
China A50	Positive	Plus 0.42	Large-cap led optimism
ASX 200 Australia	Negative	Minus 0.28	Flat to weak
PSEi Philippines	Weak	Minus 0.60	Under local pressure

Asian markets are sending mixed signals, but with a slight positive bias led by China and Korea. India may benefit from the regional strength if Japan's weakness doesn’t dominate.

Commodities and Currency: A Tailwind for Indian Equities

Asset	Price	Change Direction	Percent Change
Crude Oil WTI	67.13	Down	Minus 0.30
Brent Crude	69.42	Down	Minus 0.36
Natural Gas	3.034	Down	Minus 1.59
USD to INR	87.134	INR Strengthened	Minus 0.11

Falling energy prices and a stronger rupee could support Indian equities by reducing inflationary pressure and import costs.

GIFT Nifty Indicates a Green Start

GIFT Nifty is currently trading 80 points higher, suggesting a potential opening for Nifty 50 near 24,645 to 24,675.

If this strength holds and is supported by intraday global developments, we may see buying interest building in the early session.

The Trump Effect: Trade Tensions Return

Donald Trump’s push for renewed tariffs on Chinese goods is reintroducing the threat of global trade instability. Concerns include:

Disruption in global trade volumes
Impact on Indian IT and pharma exports
Risk-off sentiment toward emerging markets

India may face secondary pressure from global capital flows and sector-specific worries, especially in export-heavy industries.

Technical View: Will Nifty Hold Support?

Parameter	Value
Last Close	24,565.35
GIFT Nifty	Around 24,645
First Support	24,400
Deeper Support	24,250
Resistance Zone	24,700 to 24,800
RSI	Around 52
20-Day SMA	24,460
200-Day SMA	22,980

Nifty 50 is technically still above its 20-day average and far above the 200-day line, suggesting that the overall uptrend remains intact. A daily close above 24,700 could reignite short-term bullishness. A drop below 24,400 would signal more downside ahead.

Final Outlook: Bounce or Breakdown?

Today, the Indian market is entering with a cautiously optimistic tone.

Positive Cues:

GIFT Nifty is trading higher
US Futures in green with lower VIX
Asia stabilizing
INR gaining strength
Crude oil prices are lower

Risk Factors:

IT sector remains weak
Global trade war fears rising
No strong domestic triggers

What to Watch Today

Direction of Infosys, TCS, and other IT names
HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank intraday movement
Whether Nifty can hold above 24,600 in the first half
US and European market trends during the Indian session
Any new developments from Trump or global geopolitics

Author’s Note:

Markets are increasingly sensitive to global macroeconomic and political developments. While today may begin on a strong footing, sustaining those gains depends on investor confidence and international cues. Stay informed, keep positions risk-managed, and avoid over-leverage as global volatility remains elevated.

The Financial And Tech Literacy