Nifty 50 Today: Will the Bears Tighten Their Grip Amid Global Weakness and Trump Tariff Fears?
Nifty 50 may open lower and trade cautiously today amid global market weakness, rising US volatility, muted GIFT Nifty, and looming Trump tariff threats on India. Here’s a detailed 1500-word analysis with PE, RSI, and sector cues.
Introduction
As we usher in a new trading month, market participants are stepping into uncertain territory. After a cautious close on July 31, 2025, where Nifty 50 ended at 24,768.35, down 86.70 points (-0.35%), all eyes are on today's session. The setup isn’t comforting—GIFT Nifty indicates a weak opening of over 140 points, US markets closed in the red, and Asian markets are mixed to negative.
But perhaps the biggest concern weighing on sentiments is former US President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on Indian imports, reigniting trade war fears. Add to this the month-end expiry hangover and heightened volatility (VIX spike), and we have a recipe for a nervy day on Dalal Street.
Recap: Nifty 50 Performance on July 31, 2025
The Indian benchmark index displayed mild bearishness, dragged mainly by heavyweights like Reliance, Infosys, and Bharti Airtel. The undercurrent was clearly cautious, with no signs of panic selling, but neither any aggressive dip-buying.
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Nifty 50 Closing: 24,768.35
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Change: -86.70 points (-0.35%)
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Market Mood: Defensive ahead of expiry and global concerns
Top 8 Nifty 50 Heavyweights: Price Action & Technical Insights
Let’s delve into the performance of key stocks driving the Nifty 50:
| Stock | Weight | Price (₹) | Change | PE | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDFC Bank | 13.19% | 2018.20 | -0.38% | 18.2 | 52 |
| ICICI Bank | 8.91% | 1481.40 | -0.07% | 20.5 | 49 |
| Reliance | 8.79% | 1390.20 | -1.41% | 24.8 | 41 |
| Infosys (INFY) | 4.99% | 1509.00 | -0.66% | 25.2 | 46 |
| Bharti Airtel | 4.74% | 1914.30 | -0.95% | 28.1 | 43 |
| L&T | 3.73% | 3636.50 | -0.78% | 34.6 | 45 |
| ITC | 3.35% | 411.95 | +1.07% | 25.7 | 56 |
| TCS | 3.06% | 3036.80 | -0.55% | 29.4 | 48 |
Key Observations:
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Reliance saw the sharpest drop (-1.41%) among heavyweights, dragging the index with its large weight. Its RSI of 41 indicates mild bearish momentum.
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ITC stood tall as the lone gainer, rising 1.07%, buoyed by defensive demand and its RSI moving toward bullish territory at 56.
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Banks (HDFC & ICICI) remained in the neutral RSI zone (49–52), but showed no positive thrust, contributing to the dull mood.
Global Market Cues: All Eyes on the West
US Markets Closing (July 31, 2025)
| Index | Closing | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 44,130.98 | -330.30 | -0.74% |
| S&P 500 | 6,339.55 | -23.35 | -0.37% |
| Nasdaq | 21,122.45 | -7.23 | -0.03% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,212.60 | -19.80 | -0.89% |
| S&P 500 VIX | 16.72 | +1.24 (+8.01%) |
US Futures (Today Morning)
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Dow Futures: 44,112.5 ▼ -0.04%
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S&P 500 Futures: 6,336.4 ▼ -0.05%
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Nasdaq Futures: 23,195.9 ▼ -0.10%
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Russell 2000 Futures: 2,212.0 ▲ +0.02%
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VIX Futures: 18.13 ▲ +0.97%
Insight: US futures are mildly negative, suggesting no strong rebound is expected. Volatility remains elevated, discouraging aggressive buying.
ASEAN & Asian Markets Today: A Mixed Bag with Red Undertones
| Index | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | -138.32 | -0.34% |
| ASX 200 | -69.00 | -0.79% |
| Shanghai | +3.09 | +0.09% |
| SZSE Component | +54.23 | +0.49% |
| China A50 | -16.86 | -0.12% |
| PSEi (Philippines) | +20.51 | +0.33% |
| Hang Seng | +39.67 | +0.16% |
| KOSPI | -92.67 | -2.86% |
Shanghai and Shenzhen markets offered mild green, likely due to local policy easing and liquidity support.
Trump’s Proposed Tariff on Indian Goods: A Looming Cloud
Just as Indian exporters and IT companies were beginning to enjoy margin tailwinds from the stable rupee and global outsourcing, Trump’s fresh tariff rhetoric has hit sentiment hard. If re-elected, Trump plans to impose tariffs on imports from "job-stealing nations", which likely includes India.
Impact:
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IT, Pharma, and Auto ancillaries may face margin pressure if duties are levied.
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FII sentiment could sour, especially with US-based funds trimming emerging market allocations.
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Expect increased volatility in stocks like TCS, Infosys, and Sun Pharma.
Technical Picture: Nifty 50 Setup for August 1, 2025
Bearish Indicators:
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GIFT Nifty trading 140 points lower suggests a weak open.
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Global markets are weak; the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are all in the red.
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Volatility indices (India VIX & US VIX) are ticking up, pointing to fear.
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Most Nifty heavyweights are below 50 RSI, with Reliance nearing oversold.
Neutral to Slightly Bullish Indicators:
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No large-cap stock is in an oversold RSI zone (<30), meaning there’s no panic selling.
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ITC’s relative strength may offer some cushion to FMCG stocks.
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Banks hold up near the RSI 50 zone, indicating consolidation, not capitulation.
Strategic Outlook: How Nifty 50 May Trade Today
Base Scenario (Most Likely):
The Nifty 50 opens with a gap-down, around 24,600–24,630. Morning weakness may extend briefly, but could see some intraday support near the 24,500–24,550 zone, as traders buy the dip for expiry adjustment. However, global cues and tariff jitters may limit any sharp recovery.
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Range: 24,480 – 24,750
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Bias: Sideways-to-weak
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Sector Watch: Avoid IT, Auto; prefer FMCG and select Banks
Worst Case Scenario:
If global fear escalates intraday and FII selling accelerates, 24,400–24,450 could be tested. This may prompt a broader technical breakdown, especially if Reliance or Banks crack further.
Best Case Scenario:
If early losses are bought into and Europe opens firm, we could see a pullback to 24,750–24,800, led by Banks and defensives. But upside may be capped unless there's a global sentiment reversal.
Author’s Take: Brace for Volatility, Not Panic
Today isn’t a day to chase momentum. Preserve capital, wait for clarity from global developments, and monitor Trump’s campaign tone on trade. Markets dislike uncertainty—and tariff threats bring exactly that.
Positional traders may look to accumulate ITC, HDFC Bank, and L&T on dips, while short-term traders should stay nimble with tight stop losses.
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